Something to Think About

[Glenn NK]

http://www.luminous-landscape.com/es...lus_2013.shtml

Be sure to read the link; DSLRs Dead in Five Years.

Comments?

I find it interesting because the owner of the shop where I've been dealing with for seven years recently declared bankruptcy, and new owners have taken over.

A few months ago, there were seven outlets; the new owners closed four - three remaining - fortunately the one here will be one of the three. It remains to be seen if it will recover - they had pretty well nothing in stock for the past four months - they just received a few entry level Canon DSLR's last week.

I strongly suspect the drop in sales and resultant failure had its roots in the problems discussed in the articles linked to above.

Glenn

[Mike Buckley]

One of the reasons for the closure of brick-and-mortar stores is also the inability to compete with the large Internet-based providers. As an example, the leading brick-and-mortar chain in the Washington, DC area was reduced from about seven to three stores at about the same time that the company's assets were purchased by Adorama, a large Internet-based provider. I suspect that brick-and-mortar stores that don't have a huge Internet presence won't be able to survive.

The big implication for DSLR users is that if the DSLR becomes a niche product category, it will become more expensive rather than less expensive over time as usually happens with technology.

[Dusty]

I think the biggest danger to respected camera manufactures is the 'Smartphone'. I have just got a Samsung Galaxy S4 which has got a 13mp picture taking camera and it takes good images. I'm not saying you can get the same images with one of these against a DSLR camera but the majority of people just want a point and shoot and to transfer their images to their friends via there phone. So even the cheap end of the camera range of all the big camera manufactures is being lost to the 'smartphones' as people won't pay out any money whether it be £100 or $100 for a camera when they can get what they want from their 'Smartphone.
Dave.

[GrahamS]

To expand on a theme:

http://www.luminous-landscape.com/es...mplicity.shtml

I really hope and pray that lots of people in high offices in Japan read Mark's appeal.

[Dusty]

To expand on a theme:

http://www.luminous-landscape.com/es...mplicity.shtml

I really hope and pray that lots of people in high offices in Japan read Mark's appeal.

Graham, it doesn't appear to want to open?

Dave.

[DanK]

I agree with Mike. I think the first factor was the rise of internet retailing and, before that, big box stores. When I moved into our town in 2003, the small town center had three book stores and two photography stores. All five were gone by about 2008.

It's clear that more recently, smartphones have done great damage to the consumer P&S market, anbd it has to be hurting retailers in general, but it's not clear (at least to me) which retailers have taken the biggest hit from this.

Re the modest decline in SLR sales: I doubt this has had much impact on retailers, if part of the reason is the switch to mirrorless. After all, the same retailers sell both formats. However, it seems to me that this is likely to have a very big effect on the market, and Canon and Nikon may lose out. Back in the old days, the main argument against rangefinder cameras (apart from the cost of Leicas) was a viewfinder that did not adapt to changing lenses. EVFs and LCDs change that calculation.

[GrahamS]

Graham, it doesn't appear to want to open?

Dave.

Opens for me. Copy and paste it into your browser bar and see if that helps. It's the same link that Glenn posted.

[RustBeltRaw]

There are quite a few details I disagree with in the linked article. First off, the cost of mirrorless cameras needs to come down before they'll be genuine replacements for current low-end DSLRs. I think it's safe to say that image quality is comparable between (for example) an OM-D and a T3i. But the OM-D is $900 more (2.8x as costly as the T3i). True, it has better build quality, it's smaller, and you can argue the image quality question all freaking day. But until mirrorless systems occupy price points similar to current low-end SLRs, I don't see them filling the market gaps Reid opines. I suspect their prices will drop, since they're almost certainly marked up just because they're a heavily-hyped new idea (though not a bad one).

Could that happen in 5 years? Absolutely. I want an OM-D. Until you factor the cost. I don't want a camera which costs twice as much as my 60D, and requires a whole new stable of lenses, just for the main advantage of smaller size. Ultimately, I expect cameras below the 70D(ish) level will probably be replaced by mirrorless systems. Some manner of prosumer SLR will probably remain. However, I think rapid change is something of a journalistic drumbeat these days, and while not untrue, it seems frequently overblown.

[Mike Buckley]

I think rapid change is something of a journalistic drumbeat these days, and while not untrue, it seems frequently overblown.

Considering the rapid change in their own industry, it might be difficult to convince any journalist that the drumbeat is being overblown. I think we need to take that into account when we read and hear whatever the pundits say.

[HenkB]

Good articles, both. This harmonizes with what Thom Hogan is calling "Last Camera Syndrome" - the effect of having a camera sufficiently competent to discourage upgrading. Whether this means the real death of DSLRs or not remains to be seen. If the camera makers haven't already grown too large to shrink, I suspect that the type will persist but on a much longer refresh cycle. As long as it continues to make sense to do so I will keep one (or two, or three...) around. But I think there's little doubt that even entry level DSLRs are overqualified in terms of most folks' demands on a camera (and woefully underqualified in terms of connectivity). And most folks are woefully underqualified to control a DSLR in anything other than P&S mode. OTOH, anyone who is accomplished at photography can do wonderful things with smartphones - it's the user, not the tool. The smartphone makes so much more sense for snaps. That vote has been taken and the smartphone wins.

The local photo store has been in decline for decades and, as mentioned, only a very strong web presence will help. Even then, with the proliferation of products in the marketplace, stocking accessories and supplies for all likely orders is going to take a very large investment that must be weighed against the low margins available in such a cutthroat atmosphere. I suspect any store that hasn't been assiduously doing its homework for a long time already won't be able to compete.

[Shadowman]

And one last comment, have you ever heard of someone dropping a DSLR in the toilet. What that makes no sense at all, sorry!

[Manfred M]

If you look at the landscape and recognize that two of the larger camera manufacturers are Sony and Panasonic, that should tell us something. Fifteen years ago, most of my photo dollars seemed to be going to a company called Kodak, and to a lesser extent Agfa. Both are shadows of their former selves.

I suspect that we will see the continued shake out of the industry, including the major players like Nikon and Canon; although frankly I see companies like Ricoh / Pentax, FujiFilm and Olympus being at higher risk. Panasonic and Sony are having significant problems in some of their other business units as well, so I'm not sure how strong they will continue to be as they continue to lose money in their consumer electronics products (mostly related to TV production). Samsung likely has deep pockets and can survive as a niche player and I think the same thing can be said about Sigma.

Nikon's 1 line has not exactly been a roaring success as they try to find a niche for the people upgrading from the camera phones and Canon seems to have been rather quiet lately as well. I do think that the DSLR will disappear over time as the optical viewfinder is replaced with a high quality display; but frankly, the technology is not there yet, but it is coming. I also suspect that we will continue to see a fusion with video and still cameras over the next few generations (form factor and functionality are still problematic here). The one trend that I do see is a increased product lifee cycle as the technology matures. The digital camera is now a mature product; so having a refresh of the top of the line cameras every 3 years should be come a thing of the past. There is no reason whatsoever that these cameras will be refreshed every 4 or 5 years, rather than the current 3-year cycle.

Mike - the example of Adorama is interesting, but not quite accurate. They are a bricks & mortar camera store in NYC, who like another bricks and mortar camera store, B&H, have built an excellent on-line presence. I've shopped at their store the last time I was in NYC. I particularly like B&H (although Adorama seems to have a similar offering) where they ship to Canada and handle all the brokerage issues of cross-border shopping for me. I haven't bought any cameras and lenses that way. due to warranty issues, but lots of other stuff that is either difficult or impossible to get in Canada from them (in fact I am looking at ordering a few things from them today or tomorrow).

Another trend we are starting to see in retail is really a blend of a bricks & mortar store and online retailers. In this scenario, the store only has goods on display, but no stock, so while you can buy goods, The actual goods are stored in a central warehouse and shipped out via mail or courier for delivery to the home next day. Large appliance retailers have done this for decades, but this business model is moving into other products as well. I see this trend growing leaps and bounds over the next few years.

[rpcrowe]

I tried to watch the video but, that horrible music turned me off and I quit watching...

[rpcrowe]

Here's a lesson in economics... Many mom and pop, brick and mortar stores charge full retail price for their items. Big Internet marketers can usually cut those prices, usually by a significant percentage. Price is important to me as is selection.

It is a fairy tale to believe that all mom and pop stores are run by experts with great customer skills. This is not necessarily true across the board. Some great are while many are not.

However, I don't feel that it is my duty in life to support a small store (which often has less of a selection) just because they happen to be local.

There was a camera store in my area which was not part of a chain of stores. The sales staff was not particularly well informed nor did they seem to have top customer service skills. This store was bought out by Calumet Camera which is a large photo chain. The selection improved as did the prices. The unfriendly, inept sales staff was weeded out and we now have some very competent and friendly people running the store.

I buy where I get the best selection and prices. I don't need a salesperson to hold my hand and walk me through a purchase...

[Mike Buckley]

Mike - the example of Adorama is interesting, but not quite accurate. They are a bricks & mortar camera store in NYC, who like another bricks and mortar camera store, B&H, have built an excellent on-line presence.

That was exactly my point, though apparently not made very well. Adorama, B&H, 47th Street Photo and others are examples of brick-and-mortar stores that have a huge online presence. The brick-and-mortar stores that don't have it won't survive in my opinion.

[Nancy Moran G]

Ok, I am jumping in with a group of experts here, and I am a newbie. I am of the age (57) that I hate to see s/b stores go away. Unlike RPcrowe, I do need someone to hold my hand thru a purchase. When I bought my 1st digital last year, I did research, but still wanted to hold Camera and talk to someone.
I am willing to pay a little for that and know someone is there when I need them.
I do wonder if mom/pop offered free or very inexpensive classes on camera, technique, etc, that they could not find a following?
Every business has to evolve, and photo stores need to think how to evolve also.
Nancy

[Shadowman]

Ok, I am jumping in with a group of experts here, and I am a newbie. I am of the age (57) that I hate to see s/b stores go away. Unlike RPcrowe, I do need someone to hold my hand thru a purchase. When I bought my 1st digital last year, I did research, but still wanted to hold Camera and talk to someone.
I am willing to pay a little for that and know someone is there when I need them.
I do wonder if mom/pop offered free or very inexpensive classes on camera, technique, etc, that they could not find a following?
Every business has to evolve, and photo stores need to think how to evolve also.
Nancy

Most of the brick and mortar shops offers classes, hold photo contests, or offer discounts to students.

[Glenn NK]

The crux of the article(s) is not the failure of brick and mortar stores because of internet sales.

The crux of the article is that DSLR sales are down and are falling.

While many amateurs are wanting more and more MP in their sensors, more and more people don't ever print a single image - they send and display them electronically - where very high image quality is not only not required, it's pointless.

Virtually everyone now has a good computer monitor, and most have a portable pad or pod on which to view images - so why print? And if one doesn't print, why use high quality DSLRs?

It seems to me that printing images is becoming a thing of the past - outdated if you will - and DSLRs are going the same way.

How many of you are using "true" photography the way it was meant to be? Film and printed images or slides? I don't any more.

Glenn

EDIT:

Can you tell by looking at the images in the link at the bottom which ones were taken with a 30D and which with a FF 5DII? If they were printed large there would be a difference, but online can you tell them apart? Click on them for a larger view - still can't tell?

[Andrew1]

On the other hand.....

http://www.43rumors.com/camera-slaes...er-dslr-rules/

I have to add that I don't think ALL the brick and mortar shops are on the way out. Certainly the ones that charge full retail and the ones that do nothing to compete for my dollar and offer little in the way of services. Those stores that just sell boxes and really didn't do much to build any loyalty probably deserve to bite the dust first. There are stores around that I have been faithful to and not just in cameras. Unfortunately, in some marketplaces there just isn't enough of a customer base to sustain some of those as well. The one I use is 1200 kilometers away yet I'm lucky enough to be able to visit the store a few times a year. They are as good as any other when it comes to price but excel at the service and services they provide. Long life to them.

On a related note, motorcycle sales are following the same trend. Many of us around the world have reduced our discretionary spending since the bankers ripped us off in 2008. Perhaps the sales of DSLR's too were inflated for the 5 years before that and we are just now getting back to sustainable sales levels. That being said, for the most part, the newer generations seem to quite satisfied with their photography world being limited to internet posting of selfies from a cellphone.

[RustBeltRaw]

On the other hand.....

http://www.43rumors.com/camera-slaes...er-dslr-rules/

I'm not sure I agree with their conclusions, either. Calling a multi-year market shift on a simple overview of 16 months of data is simplistic. I'm surprised that mirrorless sales have settled so quickly, but I suspect they're calling the race a bit too early, and that the big ramp-up is still to come. Interestingly, I think the perception that mirrorless cameras are overtaking DSLRs is uncommon outside the photo community. John Q. Public probably still associates "good cameras" with clicky mirror noises and DSLR-sized (and -appearing) products.

Much as I'd prefer to shop at a brick-and-mortar store, even if I pay a premium to do so, there's only one in the area which I use on a regular basis, and that's mainly for rentals. Every time I'm in there, they're on a conspicuous crusade for my money, and try to sell me a 300mm f2.8 every time I even hint that I'm an action shooter. That single lens, new, costs about 1.7 times as much as my current investment in all my gear including my computer. And there's the small detail that I can't afford it and don't need it. But they push anyway.

The nearest camera store I really like is Roberts Camera in Indianapolis (5 hours' drive from Detroit). I've been there twice, but for a total of nearly 7 hours. Interesting technical discussions and story-swapping are inevitable. Fortunately, they have an excellent used department and a reasonable online presence, so my used gear, and some of my new stuff, comes from them.