It's really just a judgement thing, and it's going to depend on how long your exposure is and how low the sun is. It's actually not as critical as you might first think because if an ideal exposure is, say, 10 minutes then anything from 5 to 20 minutes is only +/- 1 stop, which isn't a lot.
As a rule of thumb, just switch on the blinkies and see where you get them -- you'll get a feel for it after a while, especially as the exposures change from shot to shot. The other rule of thumb is "don't packup and go home until it's too dark to see your gear". It was so dark for this shot that I had to restart it after I tripped over a tripod leg wandering around waiting for the exposure to finish (12 min shot).
And this one was 40 minutes (I sat in the car reading a Kindle book!)
