Originally Posted by
GrumpyDiver
Falk's writeup is good, but is based on the math and physics side of the house. On the flip side, I don't think he has a good grasp of the design, manufacturing, financial, etc. side of things. I think he makes a lot of good points, but also some rather suspect ones.
Where I clearly see a miss is the cost of introducing fast, quality lenses on a crop frame sensor that give the user the equivalent depth of field of a full frame camera (which incidentally was one of the reasons I went full frame). Optically quality on so called "professional" lenses means even more constraints on the lens designer. Most pro zoom lenses have maximum apertures of f/2.8 and generally have zoom factors of less than 3x. Going to an APS-C sized sensor for the same DoF means that we would need f/2 lenses. The current market for this "fast glass" is largely the portrait / wedding photographer, i.e. people shots. This market still largely produces high quality prints, so I see that this market is going to have to be satisfied before Falk's predictions can be realized.