Canon suggests major market implosion

[Tronhard]

The following has been aired on several camera websites, and makes for some interesting reading regarding the future of the ILC market.

https://www.dpreview.com/news/411568...ust-5-6m-units

Personally I can't see the demise of cameras capable of taking long telephoto shots, and for professional photographers who will need to be able to publish high-definition images that only a large sensor can produce. That said, I can see that the popular market has definitely eroded as the tech in smart phones improves and I suspect more people are printing less and instead putting their images on social media, on-line image banks or viewing them on media devices such as pads. Let me be clear: I am not saying there is no market for printing, but I suspect the comments from Canon suggest they see the ILC market becoming more niche - in some ways like the photo film market has done.

What I am surprised at is that conventional camera makers are not using the software tools now becoming common for cell phones that can do amazing things to an image very easily. Imagine if one could link to your camera from your phone, bring the image into an app and then vastly improve low light performance, as Google has been doing of late. Either way we look at it, there are apparently sweeping changes on the horizon in the ILC market if one is to believe the Canon interview.

[rpcrowe]

IMO. that is a pretty stupid thing for an executive to predict; whether or not it is true. Like the CEO of FORD stating, Americans will no longer be buying cars.

[Shadowman]

There could be other reasons the market is dwindling, one is that camera manufacturer's are making such excellent cameras that no one needs to upgrade for six or seven years and maybe even longer, there are at least three levels of consumers (and these aren't related to the levels of cameras (entry level, proconsumer, pro) and instead there are electronic enthusiasts (who buy anything new), proconsumers (which covers those who prefer DSLR style cameras), and those that like taking photos. What the Canon rep didn't say was how much of that remaining marketshare his company plans to overtake, even if the market shrinks by 50% there's still enough revenue to be earned if a single corporation can snare a good portion of it, also if you look at the latest big sellers for DSLRs they've all had prices well above entry level prices.

[Manfred M]

This is not surprising as a technology matures. We've seen the same thing happen to computers and cell phones. Once the market is saturated and the new features do not provide enough value to upgrade. People will hang onto these devices longer and will replace them when they wear out or break.

[DickyOZ]

Camera sensor and AF IS and IQ etc seem to have reached a plateau. Gains with each new release are mostly hype; so there is less incentive to upgrade.

Phone photography does produce remarkable images - for social media. Just don't look too close. The days when I always used to carry a compact camera in my pocket are long gone.

The Professionals will need ILC for the foreseeable future but even they need to upgrade far less often. And then a lot of their investment is in glass - not the body.

The enthusiasm for photo forums has also decayed. Forums that I used to post on are far less active than they were even a year ago. Getting a thread to stay on page one for more than an hour wasn't easy. Now the the last post on page one can be a month old.

So just enjoy your work or hobby.
Dicky.

[Stagecoach]

The enthusiasm for photo forums has also decayed.
Dicky.

I'm not so sure it's the "enthusiasm" for photo forums that has decayed but there seems to be a major decay in those participating who are 'wanting to learn' about using cameras and taking pictures.

This may be an indication of less people buying new cameras or that certain forums are no longer a good place to learn.

[DanK]

I suppose it depends on the forum, but I have also noticed a drop in participation in some of them. For example, in the digital darkroom forum of another site I used to follow, there has been a single post in the last month, and that garnered a single reply. Of course, all sites morph over time as users come and go.

[Shadowman]

I suppose it depends on the forum, but I have also noticed a drop in participation in some of them. For example, in the digital darkroom forum of another site I used to follow, there has been a single post in the last month, and that garnered a single reply. Of course, all sites morph over time as users come and go.

A few years ago I followed at least four YouTube photography gurus, today only about one as the overall amount of knowledge has already been absorbed, all that is left are a few bits and pieces of info, in fact I haven't purchased a magic lantern/user guide in years. I was waiting for my local library to get a copy of the last camera I purchased but they never obtained one and I got by without it.

[Manfred M]

I'm not so sure it's the "enthusiasm" for photo forums that has decayed but there seems to be a major decay in those participating who are 'wanting to learn' about using cameras and taking pictures.

This may be an indication of less people buying new cameras or that certain forums are no longer a good place to learn.

The "bricks and mortar" photography schools seem to be seeing a similar transformation. When I started taking courses at the local community college, there was a 3-year waiting list to get into the studio lighting and the composition courses. I just managed to get in to the studio lighting course in 2012 (due to a cancellation) and the class was completely full. It was being offered in every semester.

In 2015, they Composition Course had lots of space and was only being offered once per year. Studio lighting was having the same problem.

I had taken a video production program there too; camera use and technique, video editing, sound recording and editing, etc. I never finished the program because it got cancelled and rolled into a media production course which incorporated video, broadcast radio, TV production and web design.

The other thing I noticed is that people are skipping the intro courses and trying to go straight into the advanced ones or to take Master Classes. In all cases it seems like the people thought they were far more advanced than they were and wanted to skip the basics and just do the advanced stuff. That generally meant that the instructor had to spend an inordinate amount of time with these beginners and the advanced students were not getting what they had signed up for.

[billtils]

Next new thing - voice activation of all settings.