I may have chosen to practise on a particularly difficult example, but I am not achieving the desired outcome with this technique.
I watched the video referenced in an earlier thread (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6I9Q-b2pQc). It provides a very good explanation of the technique and I took copious notes of the steps. The video demonstrates the steps by replacing a fairly plain but quite blue sky in an image that also had a green middle and foreground. The colour in the sky therefore has significant contrast to the other elements of the image.
The sky in my original is more overcast and has less colour “pop” in the rest of the image. Therefore, the blue channel does not show the same black/white contrast as a starting point from which to paint with balck or white using the overlay blend mode. Nor, for that matter, do the red or green channels. The blend mode lightens lights and darken darks, but there are a lot of mid greys in my image’s blue channel so I imagine these are not affected by this blend mode, with the result that my mask is not the pure back/white it needs to be for the mask to work as intended.
Of course, my analysis of the problem may well be wrong, and there may be other factors at play.
Here is the example I have chosen to work with. Please ignore the water which now looks as though it is frozen.
Original image:
Edited version: