ISOLATION - Your Experience

[Ken MT]

I am having some concern that guns are "essential supplies"

[rpcrowe]

Dan wrote,

"With many governments, it wouldn't be political. For example, there isn't a substantial difference between the actions taken by the Republican governor of MA and the Democratic governor of RI. Both are taking expert advice seriously and working hard to come up with responses that balance competing demands."

And then there is MISSISSIPPI... The Republican governor of that state refused to initiate any social distancing initiatives stating, "Mississippi is not China" BTW: I wonder of the Mississippi Governor realizes that his long state border with Louisiana will not protect his state from COVID-19 infections?

However - even my wife who is a retired Registered Nurse, cannot seem to consider the COVID-19 social distancing seriously when it interferes with something that she wants. We have a cleaning lady who comes every two weeks. This lady cleans 10 or more house a week. IMO, there is a significant possibility that she could come into contact with the COVID-19 virus in one of those houses and become a vector for the disease.

I am 79-years old and have an underlying heart failure problem. If I contracted COVID-19, it would be a death sentence. I have suggested that between my wife and I, we could deep clean one room each day and dispense with the cleaning lady. She refuses to consider that alternative. I consider this extremely selfish and am absolutely angry.

We are quite safe from any virus in our secluded home. The virus cannot fly and the only way we could contract the disease is to invite a vector into our home!

My wife's answer to my pleas is "Go sit in the garage while she is here, I want my house cleaned....!"That is. IMO, a BS solution. This is the first radical disagreement that we have had in 25-years of marriage.

I want to protect our lives and if push comes to shove, I will intercept the housekeeper and tell her that we have COVID-19 symptoms in our house. It is not only our lives that my wife is putting in jeopardy, we have six dogs who depend upon us.

[DanK]

I have suggested that between my wife and I, we could deep clean one room each day and dispense with the cleaning lady.

We told our cleaning people that they can't come but that we would pay them anyway. They are not in a position to forgo the income. It's the first time in the 17 years we have lived here that I have vacuumed the entire house at one time by myself.

And then there is MISSISSIPPI

This unfortunately follows a political divide. The refusal to socially isolate is largely in red states. There are ample polling data showing a stark political divide in how seriously people take this, which is perhaps more accurately stated as how willing people are to listen to experts (or even to hear what experts think). I think it's the culmination of decades of disparagement of expertise by the right in this country.

[Tronhard]

In NZ I am glad that both sides of the political spectrum are agreed on the total country-wide lock-down that has been in place for a week and is scheduled for AT LEAST the next three. The current government is providing the necessary strategy, governance and legislative direction, but they have appointed a watchdog committee, headed by the leader of the opposition and engaging experts, to examine and question their performance, with the power to compel anyone to provide testimony. There seems to be no political divide here, and it's an election year to boot!

[rpcrowe]

In NZ I am glad that both sides of the political spectrum are agreed on the total country-wide lock-down that has been in place for a week and is scheduled for AT LEAST the next three. The current government is providing the necessary strategy, governance and legislative direction, but they have appointed a watchdog committee, headed by the leader of the opposition and engaging experts, to examine and question their performance, with the power to compel anyone to provide testimony. There seems to be no political divide here, and it's an election year to boot!

I still say that the difference between the U.S. Government and the Boy Scouts is that the Boy Scouts have the advantage of adult leadership

We have only had our cleaning lady for a few months. i would be happy to continue her salary for as long as she has worked for us.

[Tronhard]

Hi Richard

Not being a US citizen or permanent resident, it would be in appropriate for me to criticize your political leadership or system. Although I have to say on the week of your current president's inauguration, Canadians entering the US were asked if they supported your president. If they did not give a satisfactory answer they were denied entry - and that goes on one's record when attempting to enter again. The balloon went up when they did that to a provincial legislator, which was followed by call to the premier and then the PM who had a wee chat with the US ambassador. It's not a question a visitor should have to answer at any border.

I will simply say that I am truly appreciative of both of those things we have in NZ.

[rpcrowe]

We each received a letter from our life insurance company offering to buy back our insurance policies... The letters were described in terms like the company was doing us a favor in offering ten thousand dollars for the policies which are a half million dollars each...

What the company is actually trying to do is take advantage of people who are down on their luck, need ready cash, and probably can't afford to continue their premiums. That way, the company would get out of paying off a future million $$ for a measly twenty thousand...

[LePetomane]

This unfortunately follows a political divide. The refusal to socially isolate is largely in red states.

Then why are we seeing a disproportionate number of deaths in New York City?

Where are you getting your information? It doesn't get any more red than here in Wyoming. Both of our US Senators, our governor and member of the US House of Representatives are republican. Maybe you have visited other red states and not observed social distancing, but we're doing it here. Returning snowbirds and travelers have been self quarantining. We've been doing it long before Coronavirus.

[DanK]

Then why are we seeing a disproportionate number of deaths in New York City?

Where are you getting your information? It doesn't get any more red than here in Wyoming. Both of our US Senators, our governor and member of the US House of Representatives are republican. Maybe you have visited other red states and not observed social distancing, but we're doing it here. Returning snowbirds and travelers have been self quarantining. We've been doing it long before Coronavirus.

From the news. And I wasn't dichotomizing. Policies vary greatly among both blue and red states. But there seems to be a difference on average.

This map is a few days out of date and uses only one measure, but it's one indication.

Another local one: https://www.wsav.com/news/local-news...al-distancing/

There are a lot of reasons why NY is out of control. There were a few sources of the outbreak that had an effect before social distancing started. The city is very dense, making effective social distancing impossible for some people if they leave their apartments at all. There was a dire shortage of tests, as there was throughout the country, which made it impossible to do what was done in some densely populated Asian cities: when in doubt, test and then isolate. It's a major transit nexus--huge numbers of people go through there on there way elsewhere. Or did.

There have been some serious splits within states as well. The Lt. Governor of TX publicly told people not to socially distance even thought it would lead to deaths among the elderly (e.g., https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/24/texas...avirus-spread/), while the governor rejected that position and has instituted some distancing policies.

[LePetomane]

This map is a few days out of date and uses only one measure, but it's one indication.

Your map references the state of Minnesota. A job took me there for 21 years and it is the most unfriendly place I have ever been. If one does not subscribe to the local political persuasion which is a big part of the culture there they are shunned in a Minnesota Nice" manner. It is a good thing that I worked so many hours and did not have time to socialize. Social distancing is the norm there and has been in existence long before COVID19 came on the scene.

[Cantab]

Hi Richard

Not being a US citizen or permanent resident, it would be in appropriate for me to criticize your political leadership or system. Although I have to say on the week of your current president's inauguration, Canadians entering the US were asked if they supported your president. If they did not give a satisfactory answer they were denied entry - and that goes on one's record when attempting to enter again. The balloon went up when they did that to a provincial legislator, which was followed by called to the premier and then the PM. It's not a question a visitor should have to answer at any border.

I will simply say that I am truly appreciative of both of those things we have in NZ.

Well said. And fortunately I can say much the same for at least the province where we live.

[Tronhard]

Virus Humour: because really we need a good laugh now and again...

A fellow returning from overseas was suspected of having Covid-19, so they told him he would have to go into isolation and would be fed on a diet of pancakes for breakfast, and unleavened bread and pizza for other meals.

He asked if this new diet would help him fight the virus.

They replied no, but it's what we can slide under the door...

[mugge]

I am having some concern that guns are "essential supplies"

Essential supplies? My brain hurts!

[Tringa]

It seems in my part of London the advice from the UK government is being followed well. Our road is fairly quiet at any time but is even more quiet now and very few people are walking about. Videos on the BBC show even central London is also very quiet.

One thing that is noticeable is the lack or aeroplanes. We are fairly close to an airport and here/see 'planes frequently; now there are none.

We are lucky in being retired and also living close to some open land so we can exercise easily and keep our distance from others. For many it will be much more difficult.

Unfortunately the government were behind the curve for some weeks and are only now starting to catch up and take on board the expert advice that along with distancing from other people the way forward is, in the words of Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, "test, test, test"

Hoping everyone here stays healthy during these extreme times.

Dave

Another bit of virus humour -

It was crazy in our local supermarket last night, people we panic buying, rushing everywhere and pushing others out of the way. My mate even had a drill thrown at him.

One minute he was just walking down the middle aisle minding his own business... the next thing... BOSCH!

[DanK]

You're lucky that people there are mostly being careful. Here it varies greatly--partly because of state and local government actions. Here is a sobering map from today's NY Times showing the reduction in personal travel as of March 23: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e=articleShare. It shows travel reductions as of March 23 and government restrictions as of
March 27. With the exception of a few states and scattered counties, the states in the mountain west, the southeast, and the midwest west of Wisconsin had failed to impose limits as of that date. all of the west coast and much of the northcentral and northeastern states had already imposed stay-at-home orders or something similar. (Pretty close to red vs. blue, but with some exceptions.) It's not a perfect measure, as there are areas (e.g., much of the mountain west, some parts of northern NY and New England) where distances are very large, but overall the pattern is sobering. As Bill Gates (who poured much of his fortune into a foundation that has focused in large part on preventing disease) wrote yesterday, this is very bad for the entire country because people travel freely across state lines.

Re being behind the curve: I think most governments, even the responsible ones, were behind the curve. Our Republican governor, for example, has done very well in this crisis, and he is smart, data-driven, and honest. He is also the former head of a large health insurance company, so he was better informed than many. Still, even he could have acted earlier. I think they are caught: since very few people understand what this sort of exponential growth with a large base is, it's hard to convince the public when the incidence rate is still low.

And not all of our governors have been as quick to act as ours, as the map indicates. The governor of Texas waited until two days ago to impose restrictions, and he exempted churches, as if the virus knows the difference between church services and other gatherings. The governors of Georgia and Florida waited until yesterday, when the death toll in the US already exceeded 4,000 and the count of verified infections (a serious underestimate because of inadequate testing) exceeded 200,000. Florida is a particularly serious case for several reasons: the very large elderly population, it's popularity as a winter tourist destination, and the large number young people who flock there for college spring break. The papers were full of photos of large, dense crowds of young people on the beaches. Then they all fly home and take it with them. There is also a large flow back and forth between FL and New York because of the large number of retirees from the northeast who summer in Florida. The effects of the delayed action in that state will reverberate throughout much of the country.

On the bright side, there are individuals and companies stepping up. One striking example was in the Wall Street Journal today, https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-milli...ne-11585821600. Robert Kraft, the owner of the New England Patriots football team, sent the team plane to China at his own expense to pick up more than a million protective masks. It took a huge amount of work as well as money because of bureaucratic problems and restrictions on the movement of the plane and its crew. Organizations here have been distributing appropriate materials to individuals who are then sewing masks for hospitals.

On the actual topic of the forum: I hoped that as someone who does a lot of macro, I could find enough in my yard to keep me busy. However, we are kind of in a gap. The leavings from before the winter, like the hydrangea flower skeletons I posted earlier, are pretty sparse now, and not much has started to bloom. The <expletive deleted> rabbits ate some of our first flowers. With the erratic weather--abnormally warm weather early, which brought out pollinators before anything bloomed, followed by very cold weather, I worry that some of the bug populations will have fared poorly. We'll see. Instead, I and a friend are organizing a group to share short postprocessing lessons.

Stay safe.

[LePetomane]

Unless things have changed, our state of Wyoming is the only state that does not have a death attributed to Coronavirus. I think people here are being pretty reasonable. There are signs throughout town that say, "Shop alone" or something similar. I stopped to pick up some essentials at a WalMart in the next town over and the parking lot which is always overflowing wasn't even half full. Today we are snowed in. I don't know why our governor hasn't issued a "stay at home" order yet. The Crow Reservation north of us has no reported cases. I don't know about the Wind River Reservation. Those places have enough health problems. They certainly don't need a Coronavirus outbreak.

I find it scary that the hospital system in NYC is overwhelmed. I did my anesthesiology residency and fellowship (critical care) there in the 80's. At the time there were 60 hospitals within the 5 boroughs.

Stay well everyone.

[DanK]

Being sparsely populated should help too. We can hope that you will be spared the horror of what is now beginning in the hot spots.


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[LePetomane]

Being sparsely populated should help too. We can hope that you will be spared the horror of what is now beginning in the hot spots.


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Dan, thanks for the kind words. I hope you are safe as well. You are pretty close to NYC, aren't you?

[DanK]

Dan, thanks for the kind words. I hope you are safe as well. You are pretty close to NYC, aren't you?

We're in the Boston area. It's bad here and rapidly getting worse, but it is not nearly as bad as NY. Chris Murray's IHME group at the University of Washington is one of the most reputable sources of estimates now, and this is what they currently project by state:



Of course, that isn't adjusted for population differences. As of yesterday, there were 122 known COVID-19 deaths in our state, the youngest of whom was an otherwise healthy 31-year-old who died yesterday. The current expectation is that it will take two weeks or so for the incidence to peak, given our social distancing, and if that's right, deaths should peak around the end of the month, or a little later. Of course, no one really knows for sure. One of the real anxieties, of course, is wondering how much the peak incidence will exceed the capacity of the medical system. The grim comment among some people my age is that we have to avoid getting sick until there are again enough ventilators to serve the number who need them.

Re why we are a hot spot: a lot of the cases trace back to a single meeting of the Biogen company. We also have a lot of traffic from NYC. The governors of both MA and RI have asked everyone coming from NY to self-quarantine for two weeks, and the newspaper reported that state troopers in RI were stopping cars with NY license plates.

[rpcrowe]

I am a native New Yorker but, have not lived there since 1960 and the last time I visited there was 1995 when my mother was hospitalized for a broken hip. However, I can point out some factors which I am sure contribute to the surge in COVID-19 cases in NYC and the problems confronting its healthcare system...

First factor is, obviously, the density of population... Although the Los Angeles metro area may contain as many (or perhaps a greater number) of people than New York City, the population of Los Angeles is spread out with far less people per any given area. The population density of L.A is approximately 1021 per square kilometer (2010 Census figures) while the density of NYC metro is about 10,712 per square kilometer. While these figures may vary considering the ways we consider the geographic limits of the metro areas; it is obvious that NYC people are packed more heavily into any given geographic area than are the people in California's largest metro area - at a ratio of about ten to one... I am fortunate that I live on a full acre of property with my wife and I as the only inhabitants. Most of the other homes specific to where I live are on half acre or full acre lots...

Second, and I believe that this is very important, Los Angeles as well as other California areas have a car based transport system rather than a public transportation based system... Going to work or even to the hospital by automobile puts a person in contact with far fewer persons if that trip is made by car rather than subway train or bus.

Third, and in line with population density are the vast numbers of public housing projects in the New York City area... These projects were aimed to provide decent housing for low income people but, have degenerated into high rise slums packed with thousands upon thousands of economically disadvantaged people.. A recent New York times report describes one 26 story public housing project having only one working elevator which crams people in for a twenty six story Petri Dish ride up or down. As per the article, there is little, if any cleaning done in the public areas of these buildings and a significant percentage of the residents of the building reported on did not, as of last week, have any idea of the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Fourth... and this has to do with treatment for Corona Virus... Many hospitals in the New York area service economically disadvantaged communities and were underfunded to start of with. The neighborhood in which I grew up (Flatbush in Brooklyn) was a middle class blue and white collar - Irish, Italian, and Jewish area with most folks, either blue collar workers or mid income white collar workers. That neighborhood had a very decent tax base and a low unemployment and crime rate. The area was supported by Kings County Hospital as well as many smaller. private hospitals. I have watched YouTube videos of this neighborhood as well as heard some anecdotal reports from some of my family still living in NYC that the Flatbush area downturn has been dynamic and obvious. I did not visit my home area during my 1995 trip to New York because I was advised by many people that this area was too dangerous to visit. The demographics have changed drastically and the business establishments have experienced a downturn. Many of the residents only speak English as a second language or not at all which makes it difficult to spread information about the COVID-19 problem and the crime rate is far higher than it was in earlier times... Just looking at the residences and businesses of this area makes it clear that it has changed from a very vibrant economy to an economically disadvantaged area, That means that the local hospitals and other services are also experiencing a downturn in finances.

Fifth... and this will remain to be proven, California was one of the early states initiating a lockdown; while New York City waited a bit longer...

BTW: "asking" people to self quarantine is a very leaky boat... Many people all over the USA are not taking self quarantine and remain at home orders/suggestions very seriously... And of course, many areas of the USA have not initiated any quarantine at all.